The articles
Judgment, in black and white.
11 August 2026·Artificial intelligence·10 min
The AI has read everything. It has seen nothing.
A language model returns the consensus of everything ever written. Yet the value of a decision sits precisely where the consensus is wrong.
Read →8 August 2026·Resources·9 min
The 5 best resources for learning contrarian thinking
Three books, one app and a public tournament, ranked on a single criterion: what they actually change in the way you decide.
Read →5 August 2026·Research·9 min
What actually trains
Forty years of research sorted what improves judgment from what changes nothing. Neither the degree, nor the information, nor even intelligence comes first.
Read →30 July 2026·Contrarian thinking·8 min
Being right alone
The consensus is right most of the time, and that is what makes contrarian thinking hard. How to recognise the moment it is wrong.
Read →23 July 2026·Calibration·8 min
Your confidence says nothing unless you measure it
What announcing 70% actually means, why our 98% intervals are wrong four times out of ten, and the three habits that correct overconfidence.
Read →16 July 2026·Method·7 min
Base rates, the question nobody asks
One question, asked before any analysis, corrects more forecasting errors than any expertise.
Read →The training ground
Reading calibrates nobody.
Everything above can be checked in a month: one real case a day, your probability locked before the outcome, and your score after thirty cases. Free, no password, one case a day.